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Argentina tops Opta's probability rankings for World Cup final

Yahoo Sports • 1 min read • Latest: Jun 28, 2026, 5:39 PM

Last updated Jun 28, 2026

Argentina tops Opta's probability rankings for World Cup final

Summary

Argentina holds the highest chance of reaching the World Cup final at just under 30%, according to football data analysts Opta. France follows closely with a probability of 28.61%. Argentina, the defending champions, face Cape Verde in the round of 32 on Friday. The team's favorable path could lead to a potential meeting with heavyweights Brazil or England in the semi-finals after expected matchups against Australia or Egypt and then Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia, or Ghana in earlier rounds. Argentina forward Lionel Messi has also made an impact by becoming the all-time top scorer in men's World Cups with six goals at the tournament.

Source Links

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By the Numbers

•Argentina has the highest probability at just under 30%.
•France is in second with a 28.61% chance.
•Argentina faces Cape Verde in the round of 32.
•Potential quarter-final opponents include Australia or Egypt.
•Messi is the all-time top scorer in men's World Cups.

Latest Updates

5:39 PMYahoo Sports — Argentina have best chance of reaching final, says Opta

What they're saying

"
Defending champions Argentina have the highest probability of reaching the World Cup final among the remaining teams at just under 30%, football data analysts Opta said on Sunday. France, 2018 champions and runners-up four years' ago, are directly behind on 28.
— Yahoo Sports

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