Dwayne Johnson's Moana faces box office challenges ahead of release

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Dwayne Johnson at Disney's "Moana" World Premiere held at the Hollywood Bowl on July 07, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Buckner/Variety via Getty Images) | Variety via Getty Images Disney’s live-action take on Moana opens in theaters this weekend, but early projections indicate the film could underperform at the box office and possibly hand Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson his second straight flop. Last month, Deadline reported that Moana was tracking to bring in $85 million in North American in its opening weekend. However, the latest projection from Box Office Pro this week showed that the film is now expected to make quite a bit less in the range of $60 million to $70 million. While most movie studios would love to have a feature open with those kinds of numbers, Moana reportedly was made on a budget of $200 million or more, and that doesn’t include the price tag for its very costly marketing campaign. The animated Moana 2 brought in over $1 billion globally in 2024, but expectations for the live-action take on the original story were never for it to meet that kind of haul. After all, live-action versions of other beloved movies such as How to Train Your Dragon and Snow White usually don’t make nearly as much money as the original animated films. For Moana, there are other early signs of trouble. The Hollywood Reporter on Wednesday (July 8) reported that the reaction from the audience who attended the film’s premiere on Tuesday in Los Angeles is not what Disney would have liked. According to The Hollywood Reporter, “press and attendees of the premiere were allowed to post brief thoughts on the film on social media, and the consensus reaction seems to be mixed, at best, and in some cases incredibly hostile, with some viewers questioning why Disney bothered making the film.” (As of press time, not enough reviews from critics have published for there to be a consensus on Rotten Tomatoes.) If Moana goes on to become a flop, or just not earn as much as Disney expected, the film would mark another box office disappointment for Johnson following last year’s The Smashing Machine. The WWE legend’s portrayal of MMA fighter Mark Kerr was lauded by critics — though not enough to earn an Oscar nod — but The Smashing Machine earned less than half its production budget at the box office. Johnson has been absent from WWE programming since 2025’s Elimination Chamber, where he appeared in The Final Boss mode as John Cena made his long-awaited (and ill-fated) heel turn. But wrestling fans hoping for The Rock to make any kind of regular return to WWE programming will likely be let down, considering his busy schedule. Despite what may or may not happen at the box office with the live-action Moana, Johnson revealed at a recent press conference that a third animated feature in the franchise will be forthcoming. On top of that, Johnson could find himself in the good graces of critics again with the just-announced Free Byrd, a drama in which he will play a motorcycle stuntman with dementia. What do you think about The Rock’s latest Hollywood features? Let us know in the comments.