ESPN projects Florida State to finish 5-7 following narrow loss to SMU

Yahoo Sports1 min read • Latest: Sep 9, 2026, 1:44 PM

Last updated Sep 9, 2026

ESPN projects Florida State to finish 5-7 following narrow loss to SMU
Summary

Following a 27-24 loss to the SMU Mustangs, Florida State enters its first bye week with a 1-1 overall record. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor suggests a difficult path for the remainder of the season, currently favoring the Seminoles in only four of their final 10 games. If current projections hold, the team would finish 5-7 for the second consecutive year. The model indicates significant challenges in upcoming road games against the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Miami Hurricanes, where Florida State carries win probabilities of 11.6% and 6.6%, respectively. Conversely, the outlook for the October 31 matchup against the Clemson Tigers has improved, with the Seminoles now holding a 62.7% chance to win. The team returns to action September 19 against Alabama.

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By the Numbers
  • Florida State sits at 1-1 after a 27-24 loss to SMU.
  • ESPN projects a 5-7 final record based on current win probabilities.
  • The Seminoles have a 99% win probability against Central Arkansas on September 26.
  • Florida State travels to face Alabama on September 19.
  • The model identifies the Miami game as the most difficult remaining matchup.
Latest Updates
  • 1:44 PMYahoo SportsESPN predicts the remainder of FSU football's schedule after Week 1
What they're saying
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ESPN’s Matchup Predictor currently favors Florida State in four of its final 10 games after the Seminoles fell to 1-1.

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