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Kylian Mbappé leads projections for Golden Boot at 2026 World Cup

Yahoo Sports • 1 min read • Latest: Jun 3, 2026, 6:45 PM

Last updated Jun 3, 2026

Kylian Mbappé leads projections for Golden Boot at 2026 World Cup

Summary

Kylian Mbappé is projected to be the top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to BettingLounge's supercomputer simulations. The model predicts he has a 24% chance of winning the Golden Boot, estimating an xG of 6.85. Harry Kane follows with a 17.2% chance after scoring 61 goals for Bayern Munich in the 2025/26 season. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have predicted chances of 11.5% and 9.5% respectively. Spain's Lamine Yamal completes the top five with an 8% projection. The tournament will start in June, culminating in the final on July 19 at the New York New Jersey Stadium.

Source Links

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By the Numbers

•Mbappé aims for back-to-back Golden Boot wins this summer.
•Kane scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich in 2025/26.
•Messi and Ronaldo remain strong contenders.
•Yamal is expected to score 8% of the projected goals.
•The World Cup final is scheduled for July 19.

Latest Updates

6:45 PMYahoo Sports — Who is the favourite to win the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup?

What they're saying

"
Kylian Mbappé could become the first player in history to win the Golden Boot at back-to-back FIFA World Cup tournaments, according to a supercomputer projection conducted by BettingLounge.The superc...
— Yahoo Sports

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