MLB teams defy 2026 preseason statistical projections through September
Yahoo Sports • 1 min read • Latest: Sep 8, 2026, 7:19 PM
Last updated Sep 8, 2026
Statistical models provided by FanGraphs before the 2026 season have struggled to accurately forecast team performance as the league enters the final month of play. While only six of the 12 teams projected to return to the postseason remain in contention as of September 7, others have outperformed expectations by significant margins. The Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are currently holding division leads despite being forecasted to finish at the bottom of their respective groups. Both clubs are on track to exceed their original win projections by approximately 16 games. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals have also surpassed analytical expectations, with the Brewers maintaining a consistent winning record that computer models failed to anticipate. These discrepancies highlight the limitations of predictive algorithms when faced with unexpected team development and roster performance across a 162-game schedule.
- •Only six of the 12 teams projected by FanGraphs to return to the postseason currently hold playoff spots.
- •The Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are leading their divisions despite preseason last-place forecasts.
- •Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals are both outperforming their projected win totals.
- •Preseason projections failed to account for the current success of teams like the Brewers and Nationals.
- 7:19 PMYahoo Sports — What Did 2026 MLB Preseason Projections Get Wrong?
"There’s a difference between predictions and projections. Predictions are human thoughts and analysis that try to guess an outcome. For example, each fan base predicts that their team will win the World Series. Human thoughts come with human error, which makes incorrect predictions justifiable when the Los Angeles Angels don’t win the World Series. Then […] The post What Did 2026 MLB Preseason Projections Get Wrong? appeared first on The Lead.
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