Red Sox projection model predicts low home run totals for 2026 season
Yahoo Sports • 1 min read • Latest: Jun 1, 2026, 7:13 PM
Last updated Jun 1, 2026
The Boston Red Sox enter June 2026 with Willson Contreras and Jarren Duran approaching 20 home runs, having 11 and 10, respectively. However, the ZiPS projection model forecasts no Red Sox player to hit 25 home runs this season, which would mark the first time since 2017. With 44 team home runs, Boston ranks second-fewest in MLB, ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The team has had a stronger showing in doubles, ranking fourth with 102. Trevor Story, recovering from injury, would need to perform significantly upon his return to contribute to the power numbers.
- •Contreras and Duran each have 10 or more home runs as June begins.
- •ZiPS model predicts no Red Sox hitter to reach 25 home runs.
- •Red Sox rank second-fewest in MLB with 44 team home runs.
- •Team has a strong presence in doubles, ranking fourth with 102.
- •Trevor Story's return from surgery may affect the power dynamics.
- 7:13 PMYahoo Sports — Projection Model Still Pessimistic About Red Sox's Power Output
"Could the Boston Red Sox finish the 2026 season without anybody reaching this benchmark?
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