ESPN Football Power Index updates Penn State 2026 win probabilities

Following a season-opening victory against Marshall, Penn State saw its win probability projections increase for nearly every remaining game on the 2026 schedule. ESPN's Football Power Index adjusted its modeling after the initial week of Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are now favored by the model to win their upcoming matchup against Michigan, reversing a pre-week prediction that had Penn State as the underdog. Probabilities also improved for the game at Washington. While win chances rose across almost all games, the home game against USC saw a slight decrease from 63.4% to 61.8%. The team continues its 2026 campaign with a game at Temple on September 12 at Lincoln Financial Field.

• 12:02 PMYahoo Sports — Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026