Statistical analysis projects win probabilities for Pac-12 college football programs

Statistical modeling ranks Boise State, San Diego State, Texas State, Washington State, and Fresno State as the top contenders for the Pac-12 conference title. The projections indicate that because all league members play each other, conference outcomes depend heavily on game locations and schedule difficulty. Boise State maintains high win probabilities in most contests, though road trips to Fresno State and Washington State present challenges. San Diego State secures the second position by hosting key opponents, while Texas State and Washington State round out the middle of the projected standings. Fresno State sits in the fifth spot, largely due to a schedule that requires road games against three of the conference’s top-ranked programs. These probabilities account for non-conference games and internal conference scheduling, though final outcomes remain subject to actual performance on the field throughout the season.

• 3:00 PMYahoo Sports — Stats Corner: Pac-12 Preseason Win Probabilities