PFF model projects Indianapolis Colts playoff chances at 34 percent

The PFF preseason model lists the Indianapolis Colts with a 34% chance of reaching the NFL playoffs ahead of the 2026 season opener. Analysts attributed this cautious forecast to the team’s performance decline during the final six weeks of the 2025 season, when the squad dropped from first to 27th in EPA per play. Despite the low postseason probability, the Colts retain core offensive talent after re-signing quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce. The organization faces questions regarding its defensive unit, which finished 23rd in pressure rate last year and now relies on younger players to fill key vacancies. PFF maintains that while the team is well-coached under Shane Steichen, it enters the regular season as an underdog in the AFC playoff race. The Colts begin their schedule this week with an opportunity to challenge these projections through early performance.

• 6:30 PMYahoo Sports — Colts given concerning playoff chance for 2026 season